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Re: A nice blog on collecting Tolkien books
Shirrif
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Also, one other thing. Unless someone has actually asked HC how many copies remain, I'm guessing the numbers being sold might be misleading. I took at note of someone selling #333 at some point in late 2009 (I didn't note the month). Some copies may have been sold slightly out of order. Bruffyboy, are you sure the #260 purchase wasn't off eBay?

BH

Posted on: 2010/8/16 4:26
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You drive a hard bargain – you can have it for £10 all-in – one consolation (for you) is that you do not have to hear the cries of my children, for bread...


Re: A nice blog on collecting Tolkien books
Shirrif
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Bruffyboy, you have to ask yourself --who is now buying the signed deluxe CoH? The rush at the beggining, as you say, was from all the mad collectors (in the main); some bought a few copies; some of these sales would, undoubtedly, be to dealers too. But with distribution being direct publisher-to-customer the potential for making any money as a dealer was, I assume, pretty low until discounting started kicking in. Once discounting started I think quite a lot of the sales would have been driven by book dealer purchases, not collectors.

So you might ask: why is a title, with a (relatively) small print run, still sitting at only about 2/3rds sold after (& I think you mis-calculate Trotter!; was the deluxe not published in Nov. 2007?) nearly three years? Is Tolkien suddenly unpopular? Was CoH unpopular? I would suggest the main reason is the price (& the title itself; the 'story' is known) --£350 is lot of money for a book; deluxe, leather-bound, or not.

As for value. It will never be worth (your while paying) more than £350 while stock remains with the publisher; obviously (--& one wouldn't even want to pay that now!) And, once it's 'sold out', probably about half the copies will be in the hands of people wanting (either at the time, or at a later date) to sell theirs. It's really about supply & demand. Will there be a couple of hundred people out there wanting to buy a copy and willing to pay £400, £500, or as you suggest, £700? I don't know. Just because someone on ABE has a copy sitting listed at £700, doesn't mean anyone is willing to pay that for it...

BH

Posted on: 2010/8/16 4:18
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You drive a hard bargain – you can have it for £10 all-in – one consolation (for you) is that you do not have to hear the cries of my children, for bread...


At It Again [eBay fakes]
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Here is a signed copy from our favorite seller. When will the madness end...

http://cgi.ebay.com/Book-Signed-J-R-R ... t=Antiquarian_Collectible

Posted on: 2010/8/15 14:01

Edited by Khamul on 2010/11/28 9:51:23
Edited by Urulk on 2011/1/24 12:17:30


Re: A nice blog on collecting Tolkien books
Just can't stay away
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Trotter wrote:


At that rate HarperCollins would sell out of copies in 4 years time, or they may remainder them..


As I explain in the blog, I based the sales figures on what has gone in the last six months- someone (possibly on this forum) posted that they had bought number 260 in Jan this year, so the sales figures of around 200 a year at the moment (outside of the early rush from collectors) seems right to me. Obviously it is all guess work, but somewhere around there seems right.

Out of interest Trotter, what do you guess will be the value of the book when Harper Collins has sold out? If this does happen in a year or so, surely the value will go up a little then? Obviously I am new to all this and know you are very knowledgable, so I am keen to know your thoughts.

If value is linked to low print numbers (as the last couple of editions on the HOME series and their current value suggest), then this is a winner with a print run of 500. If value is linked to signatures, then this is as good as it is now possible to get, with good old JRR now gone. If value is based on the actual product quality, then this is pretty much THe best in that field. Surely the only thing holding this back from massive profit in the future is the fact that it is not LOTR or the Hobbit?

Andrew

Posted on: 2010/8/15 9:21


Re: A nice blog on collecting Tolkien books
Shirrif
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The Children of Hurin: Super Deluxe Edition - 2007

http://collectingtolkien.blogspot.com ... super-deluxe-edition.html

bruffyboy

As regards your views on future prices, I notice that you have just purchased copy 379 of 500, so you can calculate the current sales rate is on average 108 copies per year (based on nearly 3.5 years to get to 379).

If you take into account that a lot of collectors bought two copies in 2007 as an investment, I would guess HarperCollins currently sell less than half the average rate (108) per year, probably about forty copies.

At that rate HarperCollins would sell out of copies in 4 years time, or they may remainder them.

Anyway, it's my thought that this book will be worth at least £700 in five or ten years time, at which point I will make my own decision on whether to keep it or not!


I'd say more like twenty to thirty years for that price.

Posted on: 2010/8/14 22:55

Edited by Trotter on 2010/8/15 0:42:34



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