I am aware that I am not a pro in this discussion and I do not really dare to share my thought on this, but as a simple admirer of Tolkiens work your discussion touches a deep question regarding my view on Tolkiens character. My kids have seen the “water-colour letter” and they loved it. I have shown your discussion to them and they are confused.

On the one hand there is the English scholar and renown writer who receives letters from his admirers and answers them with the help of a secretary himself with lots of personal referrals to the original letter especially when children write to him, on the other hand there is a Tolkien who does not have the time to write to them and lets a secretary not only phrase and type them but lets her forge his signature under these “fake” letters.
I have had to learn that my admiration of a writer does not necessarily be mirrored in his character so I am open to your much more mature thoughts. How does the style of answering fan post give insides of a character and what does that mean in this special case.
Please forgive me to join into this highly sophisticated discussion but it touches a nerve.

The letter is from New Year's Eve 1964.
If he did now have a secretary at this time he would have written the letter himself. What is your feeling regarding style and content.
Did he write it himself? Does it tell anything about him?

I have seen some fan post which was not quit as personal and charming as this one.

Since I am totally new in this area, could anyone tell me how often you find a new letter from Tolkien in this forum?

First of all thanks a lot for the quick replies!

Well that is interesting. He possibly meant only the Hobbit (first published in Germany 1957) - Hm...
Or my aunt did her own translation ? Or he misunderstood?
Unfortunately I do not know the original letter from her. Maybe some collector has her letter, that would certainly help.
Well the date is clear on the letter and the envelop.