Khamul wrote:
"How can anything be starting this cheap?! --must be dodgy..."

BH

Actually, I've had the best success on ebay by starting auctions at $0.99, with no reserve. High starting prices (and reserves) seem to deter a lot of propective buyers. I see your point about cheap=suspicious, but this approach IMO is as honest as it gets. You will not find a more accurate determination of value than testing the open market.

Oh, and if your looking for dodgy, here's a true example:

http://cgi.ebay.com/Personal-Letter-J ... m2eb24eb41c#ht_500wt_1156

yes my apologies, it was just seeing a £350 book started for 0.99 brought out my natural suspicion :)

alpingloin, your impeccable honesty aside (which is not, genuinely, in question), I'd have to disagree with you regarding "You will not find a more accurate determination of value than testing the open market."

I think a couple of other posters (I'm thinking Beren & D. Miller) certainly (& naturally) have a different view of the book market --being book sellers, and not buyers like the majority. (You all buy too; but clearly the majority of us don't sell books regularly.)

Clearly there are some issues about the level of exposure a given eBay auction has to the public buying audience. As a market generally, eBay, I'd say, has huge online visibility. But the number of potential interested parties is highly dependent on the quality of the listing (e.g. how it is worded, the quality & number of photographs, & how easily the auction can be found), & how reputable & dependable & convenient the auction actually is (e.g. does the buyer trust the sellers description of fine.) There is also the issue of length of auction; the nature of auctioning forcing an end to the buying process.

For truly rare or scarce items (assuming a good listing, and therefore maximum exposure) I agree, a £0.01 or $0.01 start, does seem to allow the market to determine value quite well, because these items are small in number in comparison to the number of people wishing to acquire them --naturally people think very carefully about what they are willing to pay & bid accordingly. There are also a great many book dealers also looking & bidding (I've no doubt) on these items.

But for lower priced items, or items which are numerous this "determination of value" model simply doesn't hold up.

Example: Over the next few weeks dozens of standard hardback UK 1977 copies of The Silmarillion will list, run, & finish. Because there are so many of these, and so few people wishing to acquire a copy at any given time --many of these auctions will finish without anyone bidding. Some of these auctions will be for £0.01 or $0.01. Does this mean these books are literally worthless? I don't think so.

Example (hypothetical): Every single copy of the Super Deluxe CoH gets listed tomorrow. They all start at £1 or $1. Are these all going to go for hundreds of pounds? I'd say no. If some go for £1 or $1 does this then reflect their value?

Personally, although there are factors which inexplicably make many buyers dislike this format, I think Buy-It-Now with Best Offer option, at least confirms that someone was willing to pay £X amount of money for the item. Too many other factors relating to eBay open bidding auctions distort the determination of value.

Many bidders, for example, don't (I believe) have any notion of value & only bid (with any confidence) when they see other bidders doing so. Momentum also carries many auctions beyond likely 'normal' value. Likewise, a lack of bidders (for whatever reason) combined with a low starting amount (& no reserve) can lead to 'bargain' prices being realised.

All this said, value is, very much, subjective. I just don't believe penny starting auctions are necessarily a good guide to 'true' value; if such a thing can be determined at all.

BH

Khamul, thanks for your detailed response. I agree with nearly everything you say. In my first post I was trying to be concise, and in retrospect, I suppose I should not generalize as I did. Sorry for this long post, but I think the topic is quite interesting and worth discussion. I love reading everyone's opinions and viewpoints on this forum, so I hope mine is a contribution and not just a bunch of rambling. Anyway...

Markets are fluid, so that makes it very difficult to pinpoint value. With that notion in mind, please allow me thus clarify my views.

I have had more personal success selling with a minimum starting price and no reserve. As you say, the outcome of an auction (or any sort of sale) depends on a large number of factors. For me, I typically shy away from selling (or buying, for that matter) books like the UK 1977 Silmarillion, of which dozens of copies are on ebay at any given moment. Unless I am buying to fill some particular void in my collection, I tend to stick with books that I know will garner interest at resale (early editions, limited, signed, deluxe, etc.). When I do sell items, I am also usually trying to sell them fairly quickly, which means I do not have time to price high and wait (possibly for many months) until the right buyer comes along. Also, while I admit that when I set up my recent Deluxe CoH auction I did not spend a lot of time on it, I usually try my best to present auctions very well. So, I am speaking from my own experience when I say that a low starting price with no reserve has netted me the best results. I am not saying that I have had no success with 'buy-it-now' sales, but for the types of books I sell, the amount of time I am willing to wait for a sale, etc., etc., the $0.99 start auction has served me best. (And, I also happen to know from conversation that Mr. Miller agrees with this approach, IF you are using ebay to sell. Obviously, both he and Beren have put tremendous effort into freeing themselves from the shackles of ebay by developing beautiful retail websites and utilizing venues like Abebooks..)

When it comes to valuation of books, we must clarify whether we are talking about current market, appraisal value, or "pricing guidelines."

1. If we are talking about appraisals (say for insurance purposes), you probably want to use pricing from Abe or the Tolkien Bookshelf. Say you lost a copy of the Harper Collins 1999 Limited Deluxe Hobbit (first printing, of course) in a fire or theft, you would want to say it's worth $403.75. Then, when you get your insurance settlement, you can go straight to the Tolkien Bookshelf and buy your replacement copy. However, if you weren't in a hurry, you could watch ebay for a few months and you might get one for $200 to $250 (or less, if you are lucky), but that is not guaranteed.

2. My general view of market value is very simple. Something is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay at a given time and place. This is really what I was eluding to in my last post. Depending on how all of the factors line up, the price can go high, or it can go low. Whatever the case, if a book sells for a given price, then that it what it was worth at that time, to that audience. It's only a snapshot, but I think it is pretty true and honest. I do not think this is specific to any particular sales venue, though. Ebay seems to be a pretty decent place to sell mid to mid-high priced books. Low priced books probably do better in used book stores, or sold in lots. Very high priced books are best suited to sites like Abe (or the Tolkien Bookshelf!) I would never try to sell a 1982 Signed Super Deluxe Silmarillion on ebay (not that I have one to sell!). You really do need to find the appropriate target audience in order to sell. In the end, though, I stand by my view. (And regarding the 1977 UK Silmarillion (please know that the Silmarillion is very near and dear to my heart and I wish it no harm, and I own several copies of the 1977 UK myself).... If they are being listed on ebay for $0.01 and not selling, then, well, they're not exactly worthless, but they are worth less than $0.01+shipping cost. Maybe they are not reaching the right audience, but I don't think this is the case. I think most people who really want a copy of the 1977 UK Silmarillion are going to check out ebay. The problem with this book is high supply and low demand. While I would probably buy 20 more copies if I could truly get them for $0.01, I am not willing to pay the $10 to $20 to get each one shipped to the U.S. And because I already have so many copies, I do not see myself needing more anytime soon. Nice book, but too many exist.)

3. For general "price guide" type values, there are simply too many influences (scarcity, condition, etc.) to use anything but a range of values. You can track recent sales on ebay and other venues and know the lowest and highest prices and get a sense of this range. (If you really wanted, you could record every sale of a given book, calculate the mean, go up and down three standard deviations, and know that 99.7% of all sales of that book will fall between those limits!)

Practically, however, I think most people on this forum have a decent idea of what things are selling for, and what is a fair price should they decide to buy an item. That is reflected many times in this forum, and most recently in this very thread (I'm thinking of Stu and Laurel, specifically on p4 and p5). All factors considered, though, supply and demand are still the kings. With the poor economy, demand has been down, so prices trended down the last few years. With Peter Jackson, the audience gets bigger, demand goes up, so prices go up.

A long reply to a previous long reply, deserves, well, another long reply! I agree with most of what you say too. A couple of issues though.

If [current] "market value" is what someone is willing to pay at a given time and place, then this term is without useful meaing, & worthless as a term for discussion, as so defined (altho' I will discuss it!); as this price can be (with very high upper limits only) absolutely anything! Any item could realise literally nothing on eBay under individual circumstances relating to the particular listing.

Also, to pick you up another point, you state: Whatever the case, if a book sells for a given price, then that it what it was worth at that time, to that audience. This, in my opinion, is incorrect.

Example: You put up one of your penny-start auctions. Bidder A knows he/she would happily pay £200, has no time for any eBay bidding nonsense (& in any case is away working, without access to their computer until after the auction will end), & puts their maximum (& their opinion of worth in this case) bid in --£200. With no other bidders the auction sits at £0.01 (the starting price). Bidder B, and another Bidder (C) throw in various bids, pushing the price up to £50. The auction ends. Bidder A pays £50 for the item.

This book is acquired for less than what the bidder (the winning bidder: Bidder A) thought it was worth. In all likelyhood an auction is always, by definition, going to end at a price that one bidder was willing to pay (either exactly i.e. they just won the item over another bidder) or (more likely) for less than what they were willing to pay --hence the attraction of this format. So the final price is not what someone thought it was worth (at the time) --it is somewhere between this, and what the next nearest bidder thought it was worth.

My point really is, that by bidding in auctions (assuming the bidder genuinely puts in their maximum, and ignoring for now bidding 'tactics'), the buyer is more than likely, if they stand any chance of winning at all (i.e. assuming their valuation is not seriously under the valuation of others), to acquire the item for less than their own valuation.

With Buy-It-Now this can still happen of course. The item price may be below the buyers estimate and they may snap it up. But assuming the Buy-It-Now price is really what the seller would want ideally, and they are also allowing Best Offer, then the buyer can only really hit the seller with what they're willing to pay, without the safety net of knowing what other bidders value the item at. Although, in reality, you do get to see other failed offers. With this format it is more about what the bidder & the seller think of the value (and nobody else), rather than what bidders only think. I suspect this is the crux of the matter --& what you truly mean by "market value". What the buyers think & not the sellers.

As for the penny-start listing working (& D. Miller agreeing "with this approach"); understandably sellers are going to favour the method which yields the best price for them --this goes without saying. However, this has nothing in particular to do with value or worth, & far more to do with preferred bidding habits --even when these make little sense.

You could have a Deluxe CoH at Buy-It-Now £250 & have no takers on a seven day auction; relist it as £0.01 start, no reserve, and watch the winning bidder PayPal you, say, £275. The very fact that this can happen is all to do with eBay bidding madness!, and not value. Why didn't the eventual winner, in this example, buy the item at £250? Maybe they missed it!; but, more than likely, they wanted the opportunity to (possibly) acquire the item for less than their own valuation of the item --& in the end, caught up in the bidding madness (& having not just punched in their maximum '£200' & leaving it), they end up paying more. Maybe they thought it was worth £275 in the first place...

BH

Nice, Khamul! You are very right in pointing out something that I often overlook - the fact that an auction has to be driven by more than one person. This definitely falls into the supply and demand realm. Predicting demand can be quite tough. And, what you would really need to predict is how many serious buyers are out there who are willing to pay serious prices. The vast majority of people on ebay are bargain hunters not willing to pay high (or even fair) prices. So, how would a seller possibly gauge demand?

This is very interesting to me, first because I really only use ebay to sell, but also because I like to track things like number of page views, number of watchers, and number of unique bidders. Maybe there's a nice formula for determining which selling method is most effective using projected number of page views/watchers/unique bidders, maybe even factoring in how quickly an item attracts watchers and how many early bidders there are. Being limited to only my own ebay selling details (watchers, etc.), trying to do any sort of valid market research isn't going to happen. I'll probably stick to gut feelings. However, I am sure there is some line where one selling method becomes lower risk and produces better average results.

Anyway, I like using ebay to gauge values because it is a pretty active marketplace, with many transactions to observe. For example, there are enough sales of early edition Lord of the Rings sets of varied condition, presentation, auction style, etc., to get a good glimpse at what people (on ebay) are paying.

Finally, after writing this post, I am realizing a couple of reasons why we don't exactly see eye to eye. I got into this discussion when mention of my ebay auction was made and I think I am stuck in ebay seller mentality. I guess I tend to think of value as being what I can sell something for (again, with focus on ebay), not what I am willing to pay, or even what others have been paying. I recently sold a nice condition (no jacket) 1946 A&U Hobbit that I thought was worth around $700 for only $450. After selling fees, I probably ended up with less than $400 in my account. So, while others list this book for $800 to $1000, in the end, to me it was worth $400. Kind of sucks, because I'd probably pay that to get it back! On the other side, there have been (and probably will be again) times when I have paid a premium price, knowing that I could never get my money back if I tried to sell on ebay, but just had to have an item, or needed it to complete a set. So, as a buyer and collector valuing my collection, I really do agree with you.

A great discussion
Alpingloin said 'My general view of market value is very simple. Something is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay at a given time and place'.

This will remain the comment for me although all others before are neither wrong nor right. With auctions of course you generally take a gamble and with ebay this can indeed be madness but I do find this as thrilling to watch as actually going to an auction itself of which I have attended many.

I feel a lot does revolve around expectations of both the seller and buyer and naturally these do not always align or even be close. For example how many times have you seen a Tolkien item listed at what seems a very high price on ebay. Then in the text they state something like ' these are selling on Abe for XYZ'. Rubbish- they are not selling but are being advertised and are likely to not even achieve anywhere near the high price asked.

A factor that self fuels this behaviour is in my mind the exceptional sales that we all sometimes see and hear about. These often seem to give sellers a 'dream' that they will achieve these 'high' figures and thus they go for it. I am not saying this is wrong and if you have the money and time to wait/hope/pray for that buyer who wants item tomorrow then why not.

How I look at it is that if we didn’t have all these variables/methods of selling and our own individual thoughts then matching items would be all be a very similar price and you wouldnt see the huge differences in the market.

What I like about books is they are not all the same and no doubt lots of us hunt out that perfect Silmarillion or one signed by Christopher. Would I pay extra for that copy - Yes of course but how much? Answers on a postcard too .........

One of my wife's old business professor's commentary on value -

"If someone says, 'I own a million dollar house,' I say, 'show me someone who will pay you a million dollars for your house right now.' That is the only time you truly have a million dollar house. If you can only find someone willing to pay you $500,000, then in actuality you own a $500,000 house."

This is one of the things that always stands out in my mind when it comes to investment valuation and assessing risk. And, yes, while I occasionally purchase books just because I really want them and never intend on them leaving my collection, I usually approach book purchases with investment potential in mind. I never expect to make big bucks or have any sort of business success through book collecting (although it would be a fun career!), but I do like to know that if I come across something special that I can't pass up, I can recover some capital by selling a few other books.

There was a point in time when my collection was growing rapidly and I was accumulating books like you read about (nice pun, eh?). Over time, and with financial and space constraints, my approach has evolved. Now my collection generally sees a good amount of ebb and flow. I only own a small handful of (sentimental) things, with which I am unwilling to part. I find that this approach has allowed me to own (even if for only a short time) a great variety of books, to become more knowledgeable as a collector, and still satisfy an appetite for buying more books!

ebay and abebooks are very bad parameters to find out the value of a book. Only rarity, state of the book and demand can tell us the real value.
And when it comes to selling books at their true value that is a completely different issue. One can indeed own a 1 million dollar home and sell it for 500.000 if you wish... if the state is correct, the estimate is done by a specialist it IS a 1 million dollar home. If you can sell it for that amount or not is a good test of the estimate. But when it comes to books, especially expensive ones it all comes to finding a buyer - timing is probably everything.

Beren, nice points, but...

In the case of a house, the estimate given by an 'expert' (a surveyor in the UK, or perhaps an estate agent) is simply based on the market at that time. It is really just a comparison of your house (i.e. its condition, & possibly some other factors) to similar houses; invariably the same style of house, in the same area --& taking into account historical sales & (more importantly) recent sales.

The surveyor doesn't just pluck a number out of thin air. Yes, they may base some aspect of the value on prediction (e.g. the surveyor believes that prices are, despite the downturn, holding up well --even this is drawing largely on knowledge & experience), but most is simply comparison.

So, to disagree with alpingloin, & agree with yourself, provided the 'expert' is indeed an expert, & the estimate is a good one, a "million dollar house" really should realise about this price --unless conditions are highly fluctuant, or unpredictable.

However, you state: when it comes to selling books at their true value that is a completely different issue.; & when it comes to books, especially expensive ones it all comes to finding a buyer - timing is probably everything.

How is selling a house & a book any different? With house selling surely "finding a buyer" & "timing" are just the same as in book selling? I fail to see how the two markets differ markedly or what marks out book selling as so unique.

You also state: ebay and abebooks are very bad parameters to find out the value of a book. Only rarity, state of the book and demand can tell us the real value. So what market should we gauge price, or price range from? You seem to be alluding to some 'true' value that items should carry, but which isn't readily available or known.

(Explain yourself! )

My real disagreement with the market will reveal the value model is simply this: if a book fails to sell at auction, this does not, in my opinion, mean it is literally worthless; either generally, or at the time of the auction. Therefore the market does not (always) determine value/worth.

Ultimately, I agree with your value range model alpingloin. (Your collecting method is imminently sensible too!). I don't think anyone thinks a single value can possibly be applied to a given item. And laurel, how right you are about prices. If 'true' values were revealed, we would have no underpaying, or overpaying --& frankly no book market (in its present form) at all. That would be no fun indeed...

BH